Aviation faces one of the toughest challenges in the global energy transition: reducing emissions while relying on liquid fuels. A new study by the International Air Transport Association (IATA), conducted with Worley Consulting, provides the most comprehensive global assessment yet of feedstock availability for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) up to 2050.

The report estimates that by mid-century around 400 million tonnes (Mt) of SAF could be produced worldwide. This would represent a dramatic scale-up compared to the expected 2 Mt in 2025. However, demand is projected at 500 Mt in 2050, leaving a significant shortfall of about 100 Mt.

Biomass and Power-to-X pathways

SAF will need to come from a mix of sources. Biomass feedstocks—such as agricultural residues, forestry by-products, waste oils, and municipal solid waste—could cover just over 300 Mt of SAF production by 2050. Yet, competition with other sectors limits how much of these resources aviation can secure.

That is why Power-to-X (PtX) technologies are essential. e-SAF produced through Power-to-Liquid (PtL) routes can complement bio-based SAF. By using renewable electricity to produce hydrogen and combining it with captured CO₂, PtX enables additional SAF volumes even in regions with limited biomass resources. The study estimates that e-SAF could provide up to 200 Mt by 2050, provided there is a major expansion of renewable energy and carbon capture infrastructure.

(Not considered here are sun-to-liquid processes that produce solar fuels, like Synhelion does. These synthetic fuels do not require more electricity than for running the offices. Remember, that not all eFuels compete with electricity usage.)

The key bottleneck: technology rollout

While feedstocks are available in principle, the report highlights that the pace of technology deployment is the main barrier. Apart from Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), most SAF pathways are not yet operating at commercial scale. To reach the required volumes, first-of-a-kind plants need to be built, proven, and replicated rapidly.

What the report does not cover at this point is the reason why, the fact that regulations have been developed with a focus on banning ICEVs by making synthetic road fuel as expensive as possible while not considering that this killed many Final Investment Decisions for eSAF-production alongside.

Regional roles and policy frameworks

Not all regions will contribute equally. North America, Brazil, India, China, and parts of Europe are identified as the main hotspots for SAF feedstock and production potential. Strong policies, stable investment conditions, and industrial partnerships will be decisive in unlocking this potential.

Closing the gap to 2050

Bridging the 100 Mt shortfall will require:

  • Prioritized access to sustainable biomass for aviation,
  • Large-scale expansion of Power-to-X solutions,
  • Stable and supportive policy frameworks,
  • Collaboration across the entire SAF value chain.

The message from IATA’s analysis is clear: SAF is the primary lever for aviation to reach net zero, but neither biomass nor Power-to-X alone will be sufficient. Only a coordinated global effort can deliver the scale-up needed.

Source: IATA – Global Feedstock Assessment for SAF Production: Outlook to 2050