Our recent SPIN webinar, last Wednesday, kicked off with greetings and an acknowledgment of the participants who joined the session. As people continued to log in, the hosts made necessary technical adjustments and provided instructions, including assigning a co-host to manage participant entries. Unfortunately, Martin Bäumle couldn’t welcome everyone as planned due to another meeting commitment in parliament, but he sent his apologies.

Presentation On The Future Costs Of Sustainable Aviation Fuel

Boris Stolz, a scientific officer at the Federal Office of Civil Aviation, led the presentation, which had a new study as its content. Boris‘ focus was on the future costs of liquid sustainable aviation fuels, drawing insights from a detailed study conducted at ETH Zurich. Peter Metzinger summarized the study at the end with the words ‚If this study is correct we don‘t need to fear that switching to SAF will make flying impossible for the average income person, even if we produce in Europe instead of in those regions that have cheap and massive surplus energy sources».

Introduction to the Study

Boris Stolz introduced the primary aim of the study as to delve into the assumptions embedded in cost models and illuminate various dependencies that affect these models.

System Overview

The study meticulously considered various energy inputs, such as photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy, alongside CO2 inputs from direct air capture and heat integration for fuel production. By modeling a fully standalone system, the study aimed to simplify the analysis and optimize energy flows and component sizing effectively.

Cost Analysis

One of the critical aspects of the study was the evaluation of fuel production costs across different regions in Europe. The analysis highlighted significant variability in costs depending on location and the types of energy inputs, particularly wind and solar. Interestingly, combining wind and solar inputs was found to reduce the need for energy storage, thereby lowering overall costs.

Geographic Variability

The study presented maps that illustrated the variability in fuel production costs across Europe. These maps underscored that certain regions are more favorable for cost-effective production due to their superior solar and wind availability.

The analysis considered various land cover types and offshore areas, identifying offshore locations as having high production potential to meet fuel demand.

Impact on Ticket Prices

An important projection from the study was the limited impact on ticket prices due to the production of synthetic fuels. Even with future mandates for synthetic fuels, the expected cost increase in ticket prices was found to be minimal.

Concluding Remarks

In conclusion, the study’s main takeaways were clear:

  • Combining PV and Wind: The integration of PV and wind inputs offers significant benefits, particularly in reducing the need for energy storage.
  • Production Potential: There is substantial potential for fuel production in Europe, albeit with geographic variability.
  • Minimal Impact on Ticket Prices: The impact on ticket prices from synthetic fuel production remains limited.
  • Regional Production Considerations: Producing PTL SAF (Power-to-Liquid Sustainable Aviation Fuel) in Switzerland is less beneficial compared to surrounding regions, primarily due to cost factors.

This comprehensive study provides valuable insights for the future of sustainable aviation fuels, paving the way for more informed decisions and strategies in the aviation industry. The following discussion showed a great interest in the topic.

You can find the study here:

https://pubs.rsc.org/en/content/articlelanding/2024/se/d3se00978e

For more updates and detailed discussions on sustainable aviation, stay tuned to our blog!