A landmark study by the eFuel Alliance and Porsche Consulting concludes that the EU could completely replace fossil fuels with renewable alternatives by 2046. The findings carry significant implications for Switzerland’s Power-to-X ecosystem and the broader defossilisation of transport.

The Combustion Engine Is Not the Problem — Fossil Fuels Are

A widespread misconception persists in the public debate: that the internal combustion engine (ICE) itself is the enemy of climate protection. But as a new study released on 18 March 2026 by the eFuel Alliance and Porsche Consulting makes clear, the real issue is the fuel, not the engine. If liquid fuels are produced from renewable electricity, water, and CO₂ captured from the atmosphere or unavoidable industrial emissions (like cement factories and waste incinerators), they become climate-neutral — regardless of the powertrain that uses them.

This distinction is crucial. Climate neutrality depends on the energy input, not on the engine type. eFuels — synthetic fuels produced via Power-to-Liquid processes — offer a viable pathway to defossilise transport without having to scrap hundreds of millions of existing vehicles.

ICE Vehicles Will Remain Dominant for Decades

The study is grounded in the European Commission’s own impact assessment for the 2040 climate targets. Even under the Commission’s most ambitious electrification scenario, combustion-powered vehicles — including plug-in hybrids — will continue to make up a substantial share of the fleet across all transport segments well into 2040:

Infographic: eFuel Alliance — ICE fleet share forecast based on European Commission impact assessment, Scenario 3 (90% climate target for 2040, climate neutrality by 2050)
  • Passenger cars: 37% ICE (including PHEV) by 2040
  • Trucks & buses: 62%
  • Maritime shipping: 83%
  • Aviation: 99%

These projections make one thing abundantly clear: liquid fuels are not going away. The European Commission itself expects them to cover more than half of total transport energy demand even in 2050. The question is not whether liquid fuels will be needed, but which kind — fossil or renewable.

500+ Projects, 200 Billion Litres by 2045

The study maps an impressive global pipeline: more than 500 hydrogen and eFuel projects have been announced worldwide, with over 120 companies planning to bring production to commercial scale by 2030. Around 300 of these projects target the transport sector specifically, and transport-related projects alone could produce roughly 20 billion litres of renewable fuel by 2030.

Looking further ahead, the study projects that if the industry’s full production potential is realised, the EU eFuel market could exceed 200 billion litres of petrol equivalent by 2045. That would comfortably exceed projected domestic demand — meaning there would be no need for aviation, shipping, and road transport to compete for supply.

A particularly notable finding: more than 80% of announced projects plan to produce eMethanol, a versatile platform fuel that can be used across all four mobility segments — passenger vehicles, heavy-duty transport, maritime, and aviation. This convergence around a single base molecule simplifies logistics and investment decisions significantly.

EV Bottlenecks Strengthen the Case for eFuels

The study also contains a pointed bottleneck analysis. It argues that the EU’s ambitious EV ramp-up scenarios face credibility challenges: raw material shortages in nickel and lithium create near-term constraints, while inadequate grid expansion poses a structural barrier over the longer term. As a result, demand for liquid fuels from 2040 onward will likely be substantially higher than the Commission’s optimistic projections suggest.

This does not mean electrification is unimportant — quite the opposite. But it reinforces the argument that a technology-open approach, combining battery-electric vehicles with renewable liquid fuels, is the most realistic and resilient strategy for reaching climate targets.

The Decisive Factor: Political Will

Despite the encouraging project pipeline, the study strikes a cautionary note. Ralf Diemer, Executive Director of the eFuel Alliance, puts it bluntly: only 6% of the 300 transport-focused projects have cleared a final investment decision. The gap between announcements and actual deployment is vast — and it will only be closed with the right regulatory framework.

The study identifies three essential policy levers:

  1. Stimulate demand: Set ambitious eFuel quotas with long planning horizons and bring road transport within the regulatory scope.
  2. Cut red tape: Apply workable production standards, streamline access to renewable power, and permit the use of industrial CO₂ sources in eFuel production.
  3. Use fiscal tools: Reform energy taxation, scale up the EU Innovation Fund and the European Hydrogen Bank, and channel EU ETS revenues from aviation and shipping into eFuel deployment.

What This Means for Switzerland and SPIN

For Switzerland, the study’s conclusions resonate strongly. The Swiss parliament’s decision to allow the crediting of synthetic fuels under Art. 11a CO₂-Gesetz — the portfolio-based approach to eFuel accounting — already provides a forward-looking framework that many EU member states lack. And with SPIN’s Power-to-X ecosystem actively building demonstration projects and tracking the global PtX project pipeline (via the PtX Project Tracker with CGES), Switzerland is well positioned to play a leading role.

The study confirms what SPIN has long argued: the combustion engine is not the problem. Fossil fuels are. And with the right regulatory conditions, the industry can deliver the renewable fuels needed to make all transport segments climate-neutral — not in some distant future, but within the next two decades.

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