A recent study by consultancy Frontier Economics, commissioned by UNITI Bundesverband EnergieMittelstand e.V., highlights the potential of e-fuels to fully replace fossil fuels in Germany in the long term—at price levels consumers can afford. The findings underscore that, with the right political framework, a rapid market ramp-up is achievable.
Cost Reductions Through Innovation and Scaling
The study reveals that the production costs of e-fuels are expected to decrease significantly over time due to technological advancements, scaling effects, and accumulated experience. In the long term, the price of e-petrol in Germany could range between €1.10 and €1.63 per liter, and e-diesel between €1.22 and €1.80 per liter, including transport to Germany. These prices are comparable to current fossil fuel prices.
High Production Capacities and Gradual Introduction
Global production capacities for e-fuels are sufficient to fully replace fossil fuels. Wind- and solar-rich regions outside Europe alone offer an annual production potential of 87,000 TWh, exceeding the current global consumption of fossil fuels at 76,000 TWh. The study recommends gradually blending e-fuels into conventional fuels to ensure a smooth transition.
Key Role of Regulatory Measures
Supportive political measures are critical for a successful market ramp-up. The study outlines several key steps:
• Reform of the Energy Taxation Directive: Taxation of fuels based on environmental compatibility and energy content.
• Investment Support: Reducing administrative hurdles, fostering research and development programs, and establishing a stable regulatory framework.
• International Partnerships: Developing a global market for trading e-fuels.
E-Fuels as the Key to CO₂-Neutral Mobility
UNITI Managing Director Elmar Kühn emphasizes the importance of e-fuels: “Without e-fuels, there will be no affordable CO₂-neutral mobility for everyone. They enable existing vehicles and new combustion engine vehicles to operate carbon-neutrally—at prices familiar to consumers.” Kühn urges policymakers to support the market ramp-up with clear measures and to integrate e-fuels into climate policy as a viable option.
Conclusion
E-fuels offer a realistic pathway to replacing fossil fuels and achieving carbon-neutral mobility. The study by Frontier Economics demonstrates that technological innovation, scaling effects, and supportive regulation are key to their success. For consumers, this means CO₂-neutral driving at affordable prices could become a reality in Germany as early as 2037.