Achieving climate neutrality in Europe by 2050 will require a mix of solutions — not just renewable electricity but also large volumes of synthetic fuels produced through Power-to-X (PtX) technologies. These fuels are essential for defossilising sectors such as aviation, shipping, heavy transport, and energy-intensive industries that cannot be fully electrified.

A new study by Frontier Economics for the eFuel Alliance and the eNG Coalition takes a detailed look at where the carbon dioxide (CO₂) needed for synthetic fuel production will come from — and how much will be available in the future.

CO₂ Point Sources Today and in 2050

In 2022, about 828 million tonnes of CO₂ from large point sources in Europe were theoretically available for capture and use. These emissions mainly came from industrial activities such as cement, steel, and chemical production, as well as from power and heat generation.

By 2050, the study expects this potential to fall to about 661 million tonnes per year. This decline is driven by greater energy efficiency, electrification, lower demand for fossil-based products, and the phase-out of fossil fuels.

However, there is another key trend: biogenic emissions — CO₂ from the use of biomass — are projected to rise by around 50% as industries and power producers switch from fossil fuels to sustainable biomass. This is good news for Power-to-X, because biogenic CO₂ is fully eligible under EU regulation for use in synthetic fuel production.

The Role of “Unavoidable” Process Emissions

Even with electrification, some CO₂ emissions are very difficult to eliminate. These are so-called process emissions, released during chemical reactions such as cement production or certain steps in chemical manufacturing. Instead of being seen as a problem, these emissions could be part of the solution.

According to the study, including these unavoidable process emissions in the eligibility criteria for synthetic fuel production could unlock an additional 130 million tonnes of CO₂ per year. That is enough to produce roughly 36 billion litres of synthetic fuels — a significant share of the estimated EU demand of 41–84 billion litres in 2050.

This highlights a key policy issue: if Europe wants to meet its climate goals and ramp up Power-to-X production, it will need a pragmatic approach to which CO₂ sources can be used. Excluding process emissions after 2040 could unnecessarily limit the available feedstock for synthetic fuels.

Why This Matters for Power-to-X

For the Power-to-X sector, the study confirms two important points:

  • Supply security for CO₂ is changing — fossil emissions will shrink, but biogenic and process-related sources will gain importance.
  • Policy decisions will shape the future — allowing the use of unavoidable process emissions could significantly increase the amount of synthetic fuels produced in Europe.

This is crucial for achieving climate neutrality in hard-to-abate sectors. Without sufficient CO₂ feedstock, Europe risks falling short of its defossilisation targets and becoming dependent on imports of synthetic fuels from other regions.

For project developers and policymakers, the findings offer valuable guidance: future CO₂ infrastructure should be designed to capture biogenic emissions and process emissions from key industries, not just today’s fossil sources.

Source: Frontier Economics (2025), CO₂ Point Source Potential in Europe, study for eFuel Alliance & eNG Coalition.